Course Syllabus
ECO364HS Trade Theory LEC9101
Department of Economics
University of Toronto Mississauga Winter 2022
Contact Information
Instructor: Gregory Gagnon
Email: [email protected]
Office: K3257
Phone number: NA
Office hours: Office hours are via Zoom. Students can ask questions by email or we can set up a Zoom meeting for Tuesday 9am-10am ET (Eastern Time).
Contact Hours
Eco364 is synchronous online has its lectures from 11am-1pm Eastern Time (ET) every Monday via Zoom. Videos of each lecture are already available via Quercus in modules devoted to each topic.
Prerequisites
Prerequisite: ECO200Y5/204Y5/206Y5, 202Y5/208Y5/209Y5
Prerequisites are strictly checked and enforced and must be completed before taking a course. By taking this course you acknowledge that you will be removed from the course at any time if you do not meet all requirements set by the Department of Economics.
Course Objectives and Learning Outcomes
Eco364 presents theoretical frameworks used to analyze international trade. We will also pay attention to real world applications, including contemporary debates, historical trade policy and interpretation of empirical evidence.
Course Materials
Required Text: Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld and Marc Melitz. International Trade: Theory & Policy. Pearson.
You can use earlier editions (9th or later have very similar content) or the International Economics: Theory & Policy book by the same authors (which also contains International Finance material).
The test many be purchased in electronic form through the UTM bookstore.
This is the link to purchase the ebook.
https://www.campusebookstore.com/integration/AccessCodes/default.aspx?bookseller_id=96&Course=UTM+WINTER+ECO364H5F%3a+REVEL+INSTANT+ACCESS&frame=YES&t=permalink
Quercus Electronic Resources: Quercus has a selection of modules with very comprehensive lecture notes. Each module also contains a link to a lecture recorded via Zoom. You will be told what to read each week by email. More materials are found in various folders under the Files link on Quercus. Problem sets for the textbook chapters are available via the Problems Sets folder. Problems proceed by chapter. You will be told what to complete every week. Solutions are also provided. If a problem requires a written answer you will find it with the problem set file. Keep scrolling down until you see the heading “Solutions”. Diagrams are in a separate file. Note the Solutions part of the problem set file provides explanations for why the curves shift. Solutions for assigned text problems are available from the publisher’s website. A selection of past tests and exams can be found in the Past Tests folder. Solutions to the past tests are provided. Diagrams are in separate files and written answers are usually typed on the exam. The Trading Project folder contains the sample trade for the project discussed below.
Course Outline
Required Text Reading:
Chapter 1. Introduction.
Chapter 3. The Ricardian Model. Problems 1-3.
Chapter 4. Specifics Factors Model. Problems 1-3.
Chapter 5. The Heckscher-Ohlin Model. Problems 1-3.
Chapter 6. The Standard Trade Model. Problems 1-3.
Chapter 8. Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition and Trade. Problems 1-3
Chapter 9. Trade Policy. Problems 1-3.
Chapter 10. The Political Economy of Trade
Required Additional Reading:
We cover a few papers to explore relevant topics not treated in the text. A detailed understanding of mathematical and statistical methods in the following papers is not necessary. However, you should understand the central issues and be able to explain them in a couple of paragraphs. We will discuss relevant issues in the lectures. Any statistical concepts we require will be covered in the lectures. For the Brander-Krugman paper you should understand the basic calculus of the model. The papers can be downloaded from the library collection. Select the e-journals link on the main library webpage
www.library.utoronto.ca
then key in the journal name to access a pdf file.
Harrison, J., Ma, X., Shlyckov, V. 2015. Export Prices of US Firms. Journal of International Economics. 97, 100-111.
Brander, J, Krugman, P. 1983. Reciprocal Dumping Model of International Trade. Journal of International Economics. 15, 313-321.
Feenstra, R., Ma, H., Yuan, X. 2019. US Exports and Employment. Journal of International Economics. 120, 46-58.
Lee, D. and Kennedy, P. 2006. Political economy analysis of rice exports pertaining to Japan and South Korea. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. p. 420-431.
Chaney, T. 2018. The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation. Journal of Political Economy 126, 150-177.
Evaluation:
Grade allocation: There is an online midterm, assignment, quiz and online final exam. The midterm (30 percent) is due on February 28, the quiz (12 percent) is due March 21, the assignment (18 percent) is due April 5 and the final exam (40 percent) is held during the exam period. The assignment, test, quiz and exam will be submitted online. The test will be posted at 11am ET on February 28 and you must submit it to a Quercus drop box on February 28 by 1pm ET. The quiz will be posted at 9am ET March 21 and is due in the Quercus drop box by 9pm ET on March 21. The exam will be posted when the UTM schedules the exam. If the test or quiz is missed the weight goes to the final exam upon presentation of appropriate documentation, see the section on missed term work below. The assignment is a term trading project and is described below. It should be submitted to a Quercus drop box by April 5 at 9am ET.
There is a late penalty of 10 percent per day for the assignment. If the midterm or quiz are missed the weight goes to the exam but you need to do two things as explained at length under Informing Your Professor:
1. Declare absence on ACORN
2. Submit the Special Considerations.
Term Project: The assignment requires you to invest an imaginary amount of money in the stock of a company involved in international trade. Based on current events and microeconomic justifications devise a trading strategy, buy shares in the company and report profits at the end of the term. Analyze why prices fluctuated. Grades are determined by quality of analysis rather than profits. Details are found in the file eco364trading project.pdf. A sample trade is found in sample eco364trade2021.pdf. Both are posted on Quercus in the Trading Project folder.
The goal of the project is to place you in the position of portfolio managers who consider how trade affects corporate profits. Using models taught in this course you must analyze current events in the economy and financial markets with the aim of constructing a stock portfolio of companies linked to international trade. For example, Canadian mining companies are exporters and meet our criteria. Commodity investment is also permitted. Economic theory can yield trading strategies for assets. Your task is to link theoretical models with practical action. More precisely each student will manage an imaginary amount of capital.. The amount of capital to be invested is one million Canadian dollars. All trades should happen in the spot market.
A report must be submitted at the end of the term describing the overall strategy and reasons for specific investments. Events that trigger key trades or stock price changes and portfolio shifts should also be described in the report. Emphasize how changes in trade policies and trade flows affect company profits and stock prices. Stock holdings must be liquidated by the end of the term and the proceeds converted back to Canadian dollars. Report any trading profits/losses in Canadian dollars. Excluding references the report should be no more than 3 single spaced pages in length. It is possible to obtain capital gains by trading stocks at high frequency. The goal is keep informed of price movements in financial markets to ensure the best possible trades. To make the project manageable write up the reasons for trades and the results as they occur instead of waiting until the end of the course to compile results.
The grade will be determined by the quality of analysis rather than overall profitability. The point is to apply economic models taught in the course to predict stock price movements. Microeconomics affects asset prices so the objective of the project is to use trade models to construct investment portfolios. When a trade generates a loss the goal is to explain why it happened using the models. Emphasize how actual or expected changes in trade policies and trade flows affect your profits. For instance, suppose the release of economic data causes depreciation of a stock you are holding with an implied Canadian dollar loss. Explain why the data caused the depreciation and why this did not conform to previously held expectations. High quality analysis will generate a high grade. Short selling stocks is permitted but you must buy the shorted stocks back by the end of trading to calculate profit. For more suggestions look at the file called eco364 project advice which is found in the trading project folder. We will also hold a meeting about the project via Zoom. Both the project advice file and meeting present important information for creating a good project..
Stock and Foreign Exchange Quotes: There are several websites useful for accessing financial quotes free of charge. You are free to find your own sites as well.
1. Exchange Rate quotes are accessed via The Bank of Canada (bankofcanada.ca/rates/exchange/). Select the Daily Currency Converter. Select the foreign currency in the box marked “From”. Select the Canadian dollar in the box marked “To” and press the box marked “Convert” to obtain the Canadian dollar price of the foreign currency.
2. Stock quotes:
a. Nasdaq quotes (www.nasdaq.com/): Select “quotes” and key in the stock symbol or company name in the search box to access a quote.
b. finance.yahoo.com. Type the stock symbol or company name into the “search finance” box to access a quote. This can be used for NYSE stocks.
c. Toronto Stocks (Get Quotes-TMXmoney): There is a box where you can enter the company name or stock symbol to access a quote.
d. London stock quotes: londonstockexchange.com lists companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange alphabetically and provides price quotes free of charge.
Submission of Course Work
Late Submissions
Online Submissions for Term Work: All term work and the final exam will be submitted to a Quercus drop box. There is only one submission for each piece of work. It is every student’s responsibility to ensure that their online submission is submitted successfully by the due date. Accommodations will not be made for unsuccessful submissions due to, but not limited to, i) the system timing out ii) submitting the incorrect document(s) iii) poor internet connection / no internet connection etc.
Missed Term Work:
Late assignments will be subject to a late penalty of 10% per day (including weekends) of the total marks for the assignment. Assignments submitted five calendar days beyond the due date will be assigned a grade of zero. Assignments handed in AFTER the work has been returned to the class cannot be marked for credit. Accommodations due to late registration into the course will NOT be approved.
Extension of Time: If there is a problem with submitting the project let me know as soon as possible
Late midterms and final exams will not be accepted. Computer viruses, crashed hard drives, broken printers, lost or corrupted files, incompatible file formats, faulty internet, battery problems, and similar mishaps are common issues when using technology, and are not acceptable grounds for a deadline extension. It is every student’s responsibility to ensure that their online submission is submitted successfully by the due date. Accommodations will not be made for unsuccessful submissions due to, but not limited to, i) the system timing out, ii) submitting the incorrect document(s), iii) poor internet connection / no internet connection etc.
Missed Term Work
Students who miss a test / exam due date because of circumstances beyond their control (e.g. illness or an accident) can request that the Department grant them special consideration. If the midterm is missed the weight goes to the final exam. The following steps must be completed in order to be considered for academic accommodation for any missed quiz/test/assignment.
Your absence must be declared on ACORN on the day of the missed test / due date, or by the day after, at the latest.
You must notify your professor by e-mail within one week of the missed test / deadline.
Complete an online Special Consideration Request within one week of the missed test / due date. The University is temporarily suspending the need for a doctor’s note or medical certificate for any absence from academic participation if you are experiencing COVID-19 symptoms. However, this policy may change at any point during the course. If you missed your test for a reason connected to your registered disability, the department will accept documentation supplied by Accessibility Services. If you visited a Dentist, Nurse/Nurse Practitioner, Physician/Surgeon, Psychologist, Psychotherapist or Social Worker registered and licensed in the Province of Ontario, have them fill out the University’s Verification of Student Illness or Injury form. In other cases, a Verification of Extenuating Circumstances form is acceptable. Other documentation can include, but is not limited to, automobile collision or police reports, death certificates, and supporting documentation from employers, lawyers and other related personnel. Please email your form to [email protected].
Consult the Office of the Registrar should your absence be lengthy or affect multiple courses.
The written explanation and documentation that you submit represents an appeal from you, requesting the opportunity to account for that portion of your grade in some other manner. If an appeal is not received, or if the appeal is deemed unacceptable, you will receive a grade of zero for the item you missed. If the appeal is granted – that is, your reason for missing the item is considered acceptable by the professor – then the weight goes to the final exam
Note that it is your responsibility to ensure that your email account is working. Claims that a Departmental decision was not received will NOT be considered as a reason for further consideration.
Note that holidays and pre-purchased plane tickets, family plans, your friend’s wedding, lack of preparation, or too many other tests/assignments are not acceptable excuses for missing a quiz, a test or an item of term work.
Missed Final Exams:
Students who cannot complete their final examination due to illness or other serious causes must file an online petition within 72 hours of the missed examination. Late petitions will NOT be considered. Students must also record their absence on ACORN on the day of the missed exam or by the day after at the latest. Upon approval of a deferred exam request, a non-refundable fee of $70 is required for each examination approved.
Regrade Request
Regrade requests should be made by email. The entire test, exam or assignment will be regraded. Students have one month to submit a regrade request from the date the piece of work is returned.
Exam Petitions:
Students who cannot complete their online final examination due to illness or other serious causes must file an online petition within 72 hours of the missed examination. Late petitions will NOT be considered. Students must also record their absence on ACORN on the day of the missed exam or by the day after at the latest. Upon approval of a deferred exam request, a non-refundable fee of $70 is required for each examination approved.
Privacy and Use of Course Materials
Notice of video recording and sharing (Download permissible; re-use prohibited)
This course, including your participation, will be recorded on video and will be available to students in the course for viewing remotely and after each session. Course videos and materials belong to your instructor, the University, and/or other source depending on the specific facts of each situation, and are protected by copyright. In this course, you are permitted to download session videos and materials for your own academic use, but you should not copy, share, or use them for any other purpose without the explicit permission of the instructor. For questions about recording and use of videos in which you appear please contact your instructor.
Technology
In order to take this course, you will need reliable and regular access to a laptop/desktop; a cell phone is NOT sufficient. You will also need reliable and regular access to high-speed internet. See the University’s Recommended Technology Requirements for Remote/Online Learning for more details. Read also the UTM Library Learn Anywhere resource website.
Students must create an official UTM Zoom account using their UTORid and password at https://utoronto.zoom.us. Logging in with an unofficial account will leave you stranded in the waiting room and unable to attend lectures / tutorials / office hours.
Supplement
The Supplement to Course Syllabi (dated August 4, 2021) of UTM’s Department of Economics should be understood to be an integral part of this syllabus. It describes
time zone information;
information regarding prerequisites and exclusions;
your responsibility to adhere to the Code of Student Conduct;
your responsibility to adhere to the Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters;
expectations regarding academic integrity, including examples of violations;
technology requirements for online learning;
your responsibility to avoid course conflicts;
your responsibility to honour the copyright of course materials;
your right to receive accommodations for religious observances;
the equity statement for this course;
your academic rights;
some resources that are available to you as a student, including Accessibility Services.
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